The Numbers
In February 2026, the U.S. Gulf Coast Jet-A spot price sat at $2.26 per gallon. One month later, it was $3.70. That is a 63% increase in 30 days, the sharpest single-month spike since the early days of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.
Those wholesale numbers from the EIA tell one story. The retail prices pilots and operators see at the FBO pump tell a different one. The markup from wholesale to retail has always been significant in private aviation, but when wholesale doubles, the retail number becomes difficult to look at.
The Hormuz Factor
The cause is not a refinery outage or a seasonal demand surge. It is a war.
Since late February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile-wide channel between Iran and Oman that carries roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply, has been effectively closed to commercial shipping. Iranian naval mines, attacks on tankers, and the withdrawal of maritime insurance coverage shut down transit. The U.S. Navy's subsequent blockade of Iranian ports created what analysts call a "dual blockade," removing an estimated 10 to 15 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products from the global market.
That is not a marginal disruption. It is one of the largest supply shocks in the history of the petroleum market.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait have pipeline bypass routes, but their combined capacity handles a fraction of the volume that was flowing through the strait. The math does not work. Global supply contracted, and every refined product, including kerosene-type jet fuel, repriced accordingly.
Jet fuel is particularly vulnerable in supply shocks because it represents a smaller fraction of each barrel's output compared to gasoline or diesel. When refineries prioritize, jet fuel gets squeezed. The "jet crack," the margin between crude oil and jet fuel, surged, meaning jet fuel prices climbed faster than crude itself.
Wholesale: The EIA Data
The chart below plots the U.S. Gulf Coast kerosene-type jet fuel spot price, the benchmark for Jet-A nationwide, monthly since April 2024. The March 2026 spike is visually unmistakable.
U.S. Gulf Coast Jet-A Spot Price ($/Gallon) — 24-Month Trend
For 18 months before the spike, wholesale Jet-A traded in a relatively stable band between $1.97 and $2.60. Operators built budgets around that range. Flight departments set hourly rates. Charter companies locked in seasonal pricing. Then March happened.
| Month | Spot Price ($/gal) | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | $2.154 | - |
| Nov 2025 | $2.258 | ▲ 4.8% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.965 | ▼ 13.0% |
| Jan 2026 | $2.031 | ▲ 3.4% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.262 | ▲ 11.4% |
| Mar 2026 | $3.697 | ▲ 63.4% |
What Pilots Actually Pay
Wholesale spot price is the raw commodity cost. What an operator actually pays at the FBO includes taxes, handling fees, into-plane charges, and the FBO's margin. That retail price is typically 2x to 3x wholesale. When wholesale was $2.00, retail averaged around $6.00 to $7.00. At $3.70 wholesale, the retail math changes fast.
At select terminals in New York, Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles, posted retail prices have crossed $10 per gallon. Reports from premium LA FBOs have shown prices approaching $15. These are not contract fuel prices with volume discounts. These are rack rates, what a transient aircraft pays when it pulls up to the pump.
For context: a midsize jet like a Citation Latitude holds roughly 800 gallons. At $8.63 per gallon, a full fuel load costs $6,904. At $15, that same fill costs $12,000. That is $5,100 more for the same amount of fuel in the same airplane.
What This Means for Operating Costs
Fuel typically accounts for 35% to 50% of a charter flight's direct operating cost. When fuel doubles, the hourly rate has to move. Here is the math on three common charter aircraft, comparing December 2025 pricing (~$6.50 retail avg) to current April 2026 pricing (~$8.63 retail avg):
| Aircraft | Burn Rate | Fuel Cost/Hr (Dec) | Fuel Cost/Hr (Apr) | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phenom 300 (Light) | 150 gal/hr | $975 | $1,295 | +$320/hr |
| Citation Latitude (Mid) | 210 gal/hr | $1,365 | $1,813 | +$448/hr |
| Gulfstream G650 (Large) | 460 gal/hr | $2,990 | $3,970 | +$980/hr |
A four-hour charter on a G650, New York to Miami, now costs roughly $3,920 more in fuel alone than it did four months ago. Operators are absorbing some of that margin compression. Most are passing it through as fuel surcharges. Some are doing both.
Hourly Fuel Cost by Aircraft Type: Dec 2025 vs Apr 2026
Outlook
Three factors will determine whether this is a spike or a new baseline:
Hormuz reopening timeline. A conditional ceasefire was announced in mid-April, and limited, controlled transit has resumed through the strait. But shipping traffic remains a fraction of pre-conflict volume. Maritime insurers have not restored coverage. Until tanker traffic normalizes, the supply shortfall persists. The IEA's most recent assessment does not project a full reopening before Q3 2026 at the earliest.
Strategic reserves. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and IEA member-country reserves provide a buffer, but they are designed for temporary disruptions, not sustained multi-month supply losses of 10+ million barrels per day. Draw-down rates are already elevated.
Refinery allocation. If crude supply remains constrained, refineries will prioritize gasoline and diesel for consumer and commercial transport. Jet fuel, as the lower-volume product, will continue to see disproportionate price pressure. The jet crack will stay wide.
For charter clients: expect fuel surcharges on every quote through at least Q3 2026. For flight departments: budget at $9.00+ per gallon retail until the strait fully reopens. For operators: utilization rates will determine who absorbs the margin hit and who passes it through. The strong operators will be transparent about it.
The fuel line item has not been this consequential since 2008. Plan accordingly.
